April 3, 2020
To: PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION
For the attention of: Mr. Klaus Werner Iohannis, President of Romania
To: PARLIAMENT OF ROMANIA
For the attention of: Mr. Marcel Ciolacu, President of the Chamber of Deputies
Mr. Titus Corlățean, Interim President of the Senate
To: GOVERNMENT OF ROMANIA
For the attention of: Mr. Ludovic Orban, Prime Minister of Romania
To: CHAIRMEN OF PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES IN ROMANIA
For the attention of: Mr. Marcel Ciolacu, President of the PSD
Mr. Ludovic Orban, President of the National Liberal Party
Mr. Dan Barna, President of the Romanian Socialist Party
Mr. Călin Popescu Tăriceanu, President of ALDE
Mr. Victor Ponta, President of PRO Romania
Mr. Hunor Kelemen, President of the UDMR
Mr. Eugen Tomac, President of the PMP
Mr. Dacian Cioloș, President of PLUS
Subject: Act NOW, act INTENSELY and TOGETHER WITH US to save Romania's economy!
Dear Sirs,
We believe that in the current situation, taking into account the measures announced so far by the authorities to support the Romanian economy in the current crisis, there is a need to rethink the way in which the Romanian state should intervene, in the sense of an extraordinary approach in an extraordinary situation. We believe that the Romanian state should, under the current conditions, behave as a responsible co-shareholder in all Romanian companies.
Here are the most important arguments and proposals:
1. THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY NEEDS HELP – INTERVENTION of up to 15% of GDP.
At the current level of Romania's nominal GDP and the estimated impact, state intervention in the economy should be substantial, our proposal being up to 15% of GDP – ca. €30 billion.
ARGUMENT A: A simple calculation shows us that, if the Romanian economy were affected by 50% per month, in the next 3 months, then further by 20% per month, for another three months, the total impact on GDP this year would be over 15%, and these figures are valid in a scenario that, currently, no longer seems to be the base scenario, but an optimistic scenario – the base scenario is becoming, day by day, one in which the global economy would enter a longer recession, with a new peak of the crisis in the fall, instead of seeing signs of economic recovery in Q4 – but even going by this optimistic scenario, governments must take economic measures of a magnitude similar to the impact of the crisis. Just as several countries have announced economic measures that are already double-digits of the annual GDP of those countries, the Romanian Government should also prepare measures correlated with this level of up to 15% of GDP, as direct state support, i.e. through cash injections and forms of guaranteeing credit to the economy, including for affected households/individuals, as well as a significant increase in public investments – above the initial budgeted level for 2020 – investments that can help restart the economy and create jobs, both in the area of large infrastructure, where Romania is still deficient anyway, and in the direction of digitizing the public system, continuing debureaucratization and developing e-government projects, not only through measures such as postponing the payment of taxes or installments for individuals and legal entities, which may help temporarily, but are palliative measures and will not prevent the collapse of many companies, at the same time as they do not represent material support from the Romanian state, taking into account the magnitude of the economic shock. estimated.
ARGUMENT B – The Stability and Growth Pact was suspended by the European Union, while Romania is still one of the least indebted countries in the EU at the government level: government debt was still in the range of 35% of GDP at the end of 2019, while the EU average was ca. 85% of the Union's GDP, some countries being at 100% of GDP or even more, such as important EU economies, such as France or Italy. In other words, even if the Romanian state were to allocate substantial amounts to the national economy at this time, we would still have a lower debt as a percentage of GDP compared to other EU countries. Or conversely, in this context, we could get more indebted than other countries, no longer being held back by the 3% budget deficit, which no country in the European Union can respect anymore, and by the maximum government debt limit of 60% of GDP, which Romania is still far from even with this proposed intervention. The low percentage of indebtedness could become a national advantage in the fight against the upcoming global recession. Romania can, of course, appeal to both national and international financial institutions, including the EBRD or the IMF, as well as to other types of financing, with the analysis of the best options from the perspective of conditions, costs and maturity of financing. We are aware that Romania does not have the resources of other more developed countries, which allocate unprecedented amounts, we are aware that there could be collateral effects following such a major economic intervention, consequences in terms of the national currency, inflation, etc., we are aware that the borrowed amounts could cost a lot and be left as an unwanted legacy to future generations. But we believe that if this effort is not made, the consequences will be even more serious, in the long term. In other words, we know that it is difficult and there are consequences, but we believe that we can, we have the means and it is absolutely necessary.
CONSEQUENCES:
A. Possible negative IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES of massive State non-involvement
Without a MASSIVE and RAPID intervention, we estimate that many undercapitalized Romanian companies will not be able to survive this crisis. We can expect several hundred thousand Romanian companies, especially small and medium-sized ones, to be voluntarily closed or go bankrupt, with a huge impact on their employees, society, but also on the entire business ecosystem in Romania; we are talking about a crisis caused by CoViD19 that does not affect companies according to their co-morbidities, as happened with the virus: companies, no matter how well-financed and even with excellent management, will die very quickly, they will be victims of this crisis, if by government decision, their business is simply prohibited, see the decrees limiting the transport of people, the closure of tourism and hospitality businesses, the military ordinances that closed shopping centers, dental offices, etc. without any substantial compensatory measures from the Romanian state. On the one hand, we see companies that, no matter how well they are run and managed, collapse because their business no longer exists. On the other hand, many more Romanian companies will collapse in this crisis due to the massive downward adjustment of demand, due to the lack of cash, which will propagate in a rapidly downward spiral throughout the economy: THE COLLAPSE OF DEMAND DUE TO THE LACK OF CASH WOULD MEAN THE COLLAPSE OF THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE!
B. POST-CRISIS CONSEQUENCES
Substantial state intervention now could help the Romanian economy avoid recession (or go into negative territory only in the very short term) and end the year at a good level, even growing year-on-year, a situation that would place Romania in a much better position internationally in terms of economy, global competitiveness, etc. The only problem is that Romania would accumulate additional government debt, perhaps reaching 50% of GDP, but still remaining well below the EU average, while the lack of intervention NOW could throw Romania into a long and deep recession, far beyond the one recorded in 2009, because the current crisis is much more serious, and our country could thus lose all the progress made in recent years on the road to convergence to the European Union average - as the country that had the highest percentage growth in the entire community bloc, to the EU average, throughout this period - with very little chance of returning significantly to growth in the next decade, until 2030 or perhaps even longer!
2. THE STATE APPARATUS MUST BE ADAPTED
SOLIDARITY is needed during this period between the public and private sectors
There is a risk that this crisis will become further proof that the state is not assuming the necessary responsibility towards both private and public sector employees. Reducing state spending must become a priority in order to successfully navigate the crisis. While in the private sector we have seen over a million suspended employment contracts since the first weeks of the crisis, with a possible increase to 2 million in the coming weeks, plus hundreds of thousands of other contracts with reduced salaries due to the crisis, state employees have not been affected in any way by the Covid-19 crisis, in terms of income, until now. We believe that solidarity between the public system and the private sector in this situation is absolutely necessary, not only because under the pressure of huge expenditures in the budgetary area, the entire economic system in Romania will collapse in this crisis, but also because, after this crisis ends, the private sector will be disadvantaged because Romanians will see once again that it was much better and safer to be employed in the public system in Romania and not in the real economy, in the private business environment.
CONCLUSION: We propose the creation of an ECONOMIC CRISIS GROUP to which all those who can contribute to solutions (the Romanian Government, political parties in Parliament, bankers, the business community) should join and which, taking into account the above proposal, should analyze it based on real figures from the economy and give an answer as to whether and to what extent a "shock therapy", as the business community sees it, is possible and viable in Romania, similar to other states. We are aware that our proposal will create disputes and debates and that is what we want to do, TOGETHER AND IN SOLIDARITY.
Specialists in strategic fields together with entrepreneurs and leaders of companies with an impact on the economy should actively collaborate to create a national strategy so that after the medical crisis is over, we do not have to deal with irreparable damage to the Romanian economy. We are in possession of detailed analyses that we are making available to the group of specialists for the transition to the crisis for analysis.
Signatory organizations
ROMANIAN BUSINESS LEADERS, NATIONAL COUNCIL OF SMALL AND MEDIUM PRIVATE ENTERPRISES IN ROMANIA, AHK ROMANIA, NETHERLANDS ROMANIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, BELGIAN LUXEMBOURG ROMANIAN MOLDOVAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, ANAT, HORA, UNTTR, FORT, FIHR, FBN ROMANIA
Signatory entrepreneurs and managers
Adrian Moț (general manager, TARGET E NEARSHORING), Adrian Pop (director, Fibrex Co), Adriana Calmanovici (director, Piticutz Style), Adriana Duma (lawyer, OVI PROD COM), Adriana Maria Tiris, (director of EU funds department, PHIN TRANS Agency), Alexander Stuhlmuller (administrator, Astimp IT Solution), Alexandra Munteanu (lawyer, schoenherr), Alexandru Farcaș (chairman of the board, CHIMICA GROUP), Alexandru Reff (managing partner, Deloitte), Alina Roșca (founding partner, SPARL Roșca și Asociații), Anca Rarău (administrator, Brandlogic Advisory), Anca Vlad (founder, Fildas), Andreea Mija (administrator, Expert Cleaning), Andrei Bogdan Rus (managing director, Cicada Technologies), Andrei Kelemen (executive director, Cluj IT Cluster), Andrei Trifan (business development agent and franchisee, Subway), Angela Roșca (managing partner, TaxHouse), Anuța Stan (director, Fairvalue Consulting), Aurel Pălăcean (administrator, Alvis comserv), Beatrice Căsăneanu (manager executive, AUTO MOTO INVEST), Bianca Grip (general manager, GripADs), Bianca Muntean (executive director, Transilvania IT Cluster), Bianca Pădurean (administrator, Cluj Today Press), Bogdan Andriescu (CEO, Risk Control irb), Bogdan Botău (founder, Azaria Food), Bogdan Ciotlăuș (CEO, efectRO), Bogdan Herea-Buzatu (CEO, PitechPlus), Bogdan Spiridon (general manager, Europrim Intermed), Călin Baidoc (administrator, bitYes), Călin Lazar (general manager, Blade Solutions), Călin Pascu (owner, Agenția de Print), Călin Păușan (administrator, BASIC POINT), Carmen Iulia Budușan (administrator, LifeMob Prod), Carmen Lica (executive director, Step by Step Center for Education and Professional Development Association), Ciprian Borșan (president, Center for Entrepreneurship Development Association), Ciprian Costea (general manager, Lola Tech Romania), Ciprian Matiș (general manager, Co invest insurance broker), Ciprian Morcan (administrator, Hygia Consult), Claudia Indreica (CEO, Psihoselect), Claudiu Baciu (managing partner, EMS Floor Group), Constanța Cherciu (logistics director, COMPANIA INDIILOR ORIENTALE PROD), Constantin Radu (administrator, Costas), Cornel Sumedrea (administrator, MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS SUM), Cornelia Muraru-Ionel (president, IND-AGRO-POL Association), Corneliu Bodea (president/CEO, Romanian Energy Center and Adrem), Cosmin Cosma (CEO, Finqware), Cosmin Porumb (COO, Hypermedia), Cosmin Răță (general manager, ROTEAM), Costel Drăgan (executive director, Temad), Costin Octavian Sorici (CEO, Neuron English Ro), Crinela Popică (administrator, CRINALINA PERFORM), Cristian Dascălu (partner, ClujHUB, Techcelerator and GapMinder VC), Cristian Erbașu (owner, Erbașu Constructions), Cristian Jeler (founder & CEO, C&M JELER), Cristian Mateș (COO, NetMatch), Cristian Pop (administrator, Dental Clinic), Cristina Bâtlan (founder, Musette), Cristina Timiș (co-founder Grup Cris-Tim), Dan Berinde (manager, Coaching partners), Dan Drăghici (administrator, Junior Med and CEO, Drăghici Dental group of companies), Dan Isai (CEO, Salad Box), Dan Nicolăescu (corporate finance partner, Brexton), Dan Olteanu (CEO, Donuterie), Dan Ovidiu Mocan (manager, CrossfitManiacs), Dan Paștiu (owner, Dabo International), Dan Pitic (general manager, Ax Perpetuum Impex), Dan Șchiopu (general manager, Hyllan Pharma), Dan Țucu (founder, Mobexpert), Daniel Mischie (CEO, City Grill), Daniel Scorobete (administrator, Scorilosim simplu prestcom), Daniel Șimo (factory manager, Eaton), Daniel Timofei (independent consultant), Daniela Apolozan (general manager, DocProcess), Daniela Marișcu (co-founder, Aqua Azur and CEO, Expert Aqua Zone), Decebal Popescu (entrepreneur, Transport Academy), Delia Mureșan (director, RIA SOLUTIONS), Delia Oprean (administrator, Coaching Consult), Dorina Ianc (general director, Nexia Consulting), Doru Bombariu (commercial director, APICOLA COSTACHE), Dragoș Anastasiu (founder of Eurolines), Dragoș Dinu (manager, DD Consultanță), Dragoș Jaliu (CEO, www.fonduri-structurale.ro and Development Consulting Group), Dragoș Neacșu (member of the Board, Bucharest Stock Exchange), Dragoș Petrescu (founder, Citygrill), Dragoș Roșca (managing partner, Delta Asset Invest), Dragoș Spiridon (commercial director, AX Perpetuum Impex), Ede Balint (administrator, Antares Romania), Edina Gaszpor (administrator, RE-TEXT STUDIO), Eduard Prodan (administrator, EDU PROD COMPANY), Eduard Uzunov (founder, Regatta), Elekes Piroska (administrator, Hvac Pro Instal), Emil Munteanu (CEO, Power Net Consulting), Erik Barna (CEO, Life Is Hard), Eugen Voicu (founder, SAI Certinvest), Eusediu Mărgășoiu (managing partner, The Network Strategy Consultants), Eva Gaszpor (president, AP Transylvania Textile & Fashion), Felix Pătrășcanu (co-founder, FAN Courier), Felix Tătaru (president, GMP Group), Flaviana Rotaru (president, ROHEALTH), Flaviu Zapca (CEO, CoreBuild), Florentin Boda (general director, General Survey Corporation), Florentin Mănescu (administrator, Constam Procesare Oțel Buzău), Florentina Ramona Pîrvu (administrator, Poiana fermecată), Florin Burac (commercial director, tudia), Florin Dradiciu (CEO, Dual IT Software), Florin Furdui (country manager, Portland Trust), Florin Madar (founder, Temad), Gabriel Biriș (founding partner, Biriș Goran), Gabriel Iștoc (CEO, B-Team Corrosion Protection), Gabriel Neculai Aftenie (general director, Babylon Consult and vice president – volunteer coordinator, Open Knowledge Association), Gabriel S Paal (executive vice president, Proudfoot), Gabriela Blaj (manager, P&L Advisor), Gabriela Pîrvu (advisor, Clustero – Association of Clusters in Romania), Gavril Iepure (administrator, Multicom), Geanina Ioan (managing director, Chilli Ideas), Georgiana Zamfirescu (development director, MASTERBUILD), Gianina Lăzanu (managing partner, DGL Consulting), Horațiu Rarău (administrator, SAB TRAINING COMPANY), Ioana Mihuț (dentist, CMMI DR MIHUT IOANA ALINA), Ion Daniel (administrator, Noatex Buzău), Ion Lixandru (director, Camionlogistic), Ionel Vîrvara (co-founder, Cadelplast Group), Iulia Ianasi (administrator, DEPLAST), Iulian Cîrciumaru (managing partner, V7 Capital), Iulian Nedea (CEO, Simtel), Jacques de Boer (managing director, Printmasters), Jerome France (shareholder, EMI), Karoly Nagy (CEO, Promelek XXI), Ladislau Muller (director, RECOGNOS ROMANIA), Laurențiu Ciocîrlan (managing partner, Hermes Capital Management), Levente Szakacs (managing partner, Pergamon RD), Levente Szelyes (CEO, Softech), Liviu Drăgan (CEO, Druid), Liviu Sima (partner, IT GENETICS), Lucian Cojocaru (production director, Solaris Plant), Manuela Furdui (managing partner, FINEXPERT), Marian Brumă (administrator, Mcr gres design), Mariana Constantinescu Brădescu (managing partner, ROCK STAR CONSTRUCT), Mariel Petric (managing partner, Kangoopack), Marinela Negoescu (administrator, ECO MUSCELEANCA), Marius Bob (administrator, DEMAR MOB DESIGN), Marius Cîmpean (manager, SHE IT), Marius Ciupercă (general manager, Setrio Soft), Marius Constantin (administrator, Donau Services), Marius Raul Bostan (shareholder, Bostrust), Marius Ghenea (managing partner, Catalyst Romania), Marius Ștefan (founder, Autonom), Marius Țapu (general manager, Artsani Com and administrator, Arge Com Impex), Marius Veresezan (administrator, Digital Smile), Mălin Mălineanu (general manager, New Concept) Travel), Mihai Brădescu (administrator, Mini Svema Impex), Mihai Marcu (president, MedLife), Mihai Rohan (president, Cirom), Mihai Tătăran (general manager, Avaelgo), Minela Neneciu (administrator, Iceland INMAR Buzău), Miorita Melina Iordache (managing partner, Project Management Solutions), Mirabela Miron (president, UGIR NE region, UGIR business women's organization and Avisso group of companies), Mircea Gavrilă (administrator, Depisto Star), Mirela Puiu (manager, Impextrading Bucharest), Nicolae Demetriade (general manager, World Travel), Nicolae Onțiu (general manager, ONE-IT), Nicolaie Lucian Stancu (administrator, DILUMIR CONSULTING), Nicu Mardari (CEO, 7code), Nina Brădescu (economic director, Mini Svema Impex), Nina Brătfălean (CGO, Virtual i Technologies), Oana Botolan (general manager, Cteam Human Capital), Oana Laslau (administrator, Mein Job Unternehmen), Ovidiu Mățan (founder and CEO, Today Software Solutions), Ovidiu Pintea (managing partner, OPTIMA GROUP), Pamela Pop (general manager, Eaton Electro Production), Paulina Mitrea (assoc. univ. dr., Technical University of Cluj-Napoca), Petru Păcuraru (CEO, HPDI), Philip Choban (CEO, Telios Care), Radu Dan Ferdes (sales director, Ax Perpetuum Impex), Radu Moți (CEO, SERVER CONFIG), Radu Orban (general manager, Soft Tech Plus), Raul Doicescu (founder, Bog'Art), Răzvan Costache (founder, Avalon Media), Răzvan Preda (manager, Tora Trading Services), Remus Bolba (general manager, Napochim), Roxana Toader (sales manager, Air Sea Forwarders), Rucsandra Hurezeanu (founder, Ivatherm), Ruxandra Marin (senior partner, Oxygen), Sabin Cernea (owner, Wu Xing & Fooda), Sabin Gîlceavă (administrator, Leverage Negotiation), Sara Wechsler (administrator, Datsa Textil), Sebastian Botizan (collaborator, LEVEL UP GROUP), Sergiu Constantinescu Brădescu (managing partner, Rock Star Construct), Silviu Dragomir (general manager, Eucom Business Language), Simona Gemeneanu (partner, Morphosis Capital), Simona Pirtea (managing partner, Enache Pirtea și Asociații), Sorin Panțuru (founder of Mackenzie Capital Group and member of the FDC Natura Group Board of Directors), Sorina Bucuraș (president, Cluster TMV), Ștefana Joldea (administrator, Dsd Denta), Tamas Mozes (administrator, Mozes Manufaktura), Tiberiu-Lucian Iriciuc (general manager, Iriciuc Com), Tudor Galoș (general manager, Tudor Galos Consulting), Tudor Maroș (administrator, Maros Bike), Tudor Mihai (CEO, Innovating Society), Tudor Pasc (executive director, BIZHUB – ClujHub), Valentin Maior (CEO and co-founder, Techmatch), Vasile Pop (administrator, Fermo sanodent), Victor Dragomirescu (CEO, ROMANIAN SOFTWARE), Vlad Chițulescu (general manager, Silvador Company), Wargha Enayati (founder, Regina Maria), Zeno Căprariu (partner, Deloitte), Zsolt Sipos (administrator, Powersoft Business Solutions).

